The Impact of Covid-19 State Closure Orders on Consumer Spending, Employment, and Business Revenue.

CONTEXT: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, states across the United States implemented various strategies to mitigate transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19). OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of COVID-19-related state closures on consumer spending, business revenue, and employment, while controlling for changes in COVID-19 incidence and death. DESIGN: The analysis estimated a difference-in-difference model, utilizing temporal and geographic variation in state closure orders to analyze their impact on the economy, while controlling for COVID-19 incidence and death. PARTICIPANTS: State-level data on economic outcomes from the Opportunity Insights data tracker and COVID-19 cases and death data from usafacts.org. INTERVENTIONS: The mitigation strategy analyzed within this study was COVID-19-related state closure orders. Data on these orders were obtained from state government Web sites containing executive or administrative orders. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Outcomes include state-level estimates of consumer spending, business revenue, and employment levels. RESULTS: Analyses showed that although state closures led to a decrease in consumer spending, business revenue, and employment, they accounted for only a small portion of the observed decreases in these outcomes over the first wave of COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of COVID-19 on economic activity likely reflects a combination of factors, in addition to state closures, such as individuals' perceptions of risk related to COVID-19 incidence, which may play significant roles in impacting economic activity.

Modeling the Transmission of COVID-19: Impact of Mitigation Strategies in Prekindergarten-Grade 12 Public Schools, United States, 2021.

BACKGROUND: Schools are an integral part of the community; however, congregate settings facilitate transmission of SARS-CoV-2, presenting a challenge to school administrators to provide a safe, in-school environment for students and staff. METHODS: We adapted the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's COVIDTracer Advanced tool to model the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a school of 596 individuals. We estimate possible reductions in cases and hospitalizations among this population using a scenario-based analysis that accounts for (a) the risk of importation of infection from the community; (b) adherence to key Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-recommended mitigation strategies: mask wearing, cleaning and disinfection, hand hygiene, and social distancing; and (c) the effectiveness of contact tracing interventions at limiting onward transmission. RESULTS: Low impact and effectiveness of mitigation strategies (net effectiveness: 27%) result in approximately 40% of exposed staff and students becoming COVID-19 cases. When the net effectiveness of mitigation strategies was 69% or greater, in-school transmission was mostly prevented, yet importation of cases from the surrounding community could result in nearly 20% of the school's population becoming infected within 180 days. The combined effects of mitigation strategies and contact tracing were able to prevent most onward transmission. Hospitalizations were low among children and adults (<0.5% of the school population) across all scenarios examined. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our model, layering mitigation strategies and contact tracing can limit the number of cases that may occur from transmission in schools. Schools in communities with substantial levels of community spread will need to be more vigilant to ensure adherence of mitigation strategies to minimize transmission. Our results show that for school administrators, teachers, and parents to provide the safest environment, it is important to utilize multiple mitigation strategies and contract tracing that reduce SARS CoV-2 transmission by at least 69%. This will require training, reinforcement, and vigilance to ensure that the highest level of adherence is maintained over the entire school term.

Estimated Resource Costs for Implementation of CDC's Recommended COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies in Pre-Kindergarten through Grade 12 Public Schools - United States, 2020-21 School Year.

As school districts across the United States consider how to safely operate during the 2020-21 academic year, CDC recommends mitigation strategies that schools can adopt to reduce the risk for transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (1). To identify the resources and costs needed to implement school-based mitigation strategies and provide schools and jurisdictions with information to aid resource allocation, a microcosting methodology was employed to estimate costs in three categories: materials and consumables, additional custodial staff members, and potential additional transportation. National average estimates, using the national pre-kindergarten through grade 12 (preK-12) public enrollment of 50,685,567 students, range between a mean of $55 (materials and consumables only) to $442 (all three categories) per student. State-by-state estimates of additional funds needed as a percentage of fiscal year 2018 student expenditures (2) range from an additional 0.3% (materials and consumables only) to 7.1% (all three categories); however, only seven states had a maximum estimate above 4.2%. These estimates, although not exhaustive, highlight the level of resources needed to ensure that schools reopen and remain open in the safest possible manner and offer administrators at schools and school districts and other decision-makers the cost information necessary to budget and prioritize school resources during the COVID-19 pandemic.